Incident analysis, incident report and movement plan

By location (n = 16): Ippy road 7 (44%), Bambari town 4 (25%), Grimari road 3 (19%), Kouango road 2 (13%). Affecting an NGO: 8 (nos. 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 11, 13, 14), including 3 criminal acts on the Ippy road (nos. 6, 8, 13), to which the incident of 14/10 is added.

Ippy road: the 7 incidents are armed robberies (5) or illegal checkpoints with extortion (2), all between 14:30 and 15:50, all between km 28 and km 41; the incident of 14/10 (14:20, km 35) confirms this pattern. The perpetrators appear to target vehicles returning to Bambari in the early afternoon. Elsewhere: night-time crime in town (nos. 2, 11), gunfire (no. 5), and a demonstration linked to local recruitment (no. 14), which signals an acceptance problem.

Limitations: database limited to incidents known to the NGO; to be cross-checked with data from other organisations and security forums.

Incident report, armed robbery, Bambari-Ippy road, 14/10. What: armed robbery of an NGO vehicle by four armed men, at least two of them with assault rifles, using an improvised roadblock (tree trunk). Where: Bambari-Ippy road, around km 35. When: 14/10, from 14:20 to 14:55. Who: vehicle NGO-07, three staff members (driver, monitoring officer, community mobiliser), returning from Ippy. Losses: 3 phones and XAF 85,000 from the field cash. People: no injuries; one colleague in a state of shock. Timeline: 14:20 stopped; 14:55 released; 16:10 arrival at the base; 16:25 debrief.

Actions taken: movements on the road suspended until further notice; lines of the stolen phones blocked and passwords changed; support meeting offered to the three colleagues and access to psychosocial support; humanitarian security forums informed.

Analysis: eighth incident on this stretch since July, same time slot (14:20 to 15:50) and same area (km 28 to 41). Failure to respect the limit on cash carried (85,000 against XAF 50,000). Not confirmed: identity of the perpetrators unknown.

Recommendations: prohibit travel between km 25 and 45 in the afternoon, recall the rule on cash, review the timing of missions to Ippy.

The report does not repeat the ethnic attribution made by the driver: it is unsubstantiated, it can fuel stigmatisation and endanger the NGO's acceptance.

At 38.3 km/h (115 km in 180 min): on the outward journey, km 25 is reached after 25/115 × 180 = 39 min, km 45 after 70 min. On the return from Ippy, km 45 is 70 km away, reached after 110 min, and km 25 is 90 km away, after 141 min.

Option A, return trip in one day: departure 06:30, area crossed from 07:09 to 07:40, arrival 09:30. To leave the area before 13:30, the team must leave Ippy at the latest at 13:30 - 2h21 = 11:09: only 1h39 of activities instead of 4 hours.

Option B, overnight in Ippy (recommended): departure 06:30, arrival 09:30, activities until 13:30; return the next day departing 07:00, area crossed from 08:50 to 09:21, arrival 10:00. Conditions: accommodation approved, reliable communication on site.

Arrangements: two vehicles, calls on departure, every hour, on entering and leaving the area, and on arrival; return deadline and procedure if a call is missed; cash limited to XAF 50,000; movement plan sent to the humanitarian notification mechanism in place.

Decision: the mission is not authorised in this form. Eight incidents on the same stretch, the last one a week ago with weapons of war, all in the time slot of the planned return: the risk is high and foreseeable. I propose option B (overnight in Ippy) or option A with reduced activities; if neither is feasible, I recommend postponing by 7 days to reassess. In parallel: exchange with the other NGOs and the security forums, contacts with the local authorities and community leaders in Ippy to better understand the situation on the road, and consideration of alternatives (remote monitoring by a local partner or by phone). The decision and its justification are written down and sent to the country security manager, who decides in case of disagreement.