Analysing and monitoring risks

1The Protection Analytical Framework (PAF)

The Protection Analytical Framework (PAF), developed under the auspices of the Global Protection Cluster, organises analysis into four pillars:

• Context: crisis dynamics, actors, institutions, laws, social and cultural norms, hazards.
• Current threats to the population: which violations, committed by whom, how, against whom, where and since when.
• Threat effects on the population: physical, psychological, material and legal consequences, and coping strategies, including negative ones (child labour, early marriage, forced return).
• Existing capacities to address threats: those of individuals and communities, institutions and authorities, and humanitarian and development actors.

The PAF does not prescribe a data collection tool: it helps to ask the right questions, to cross-check sources (secondary data, monitoring, interviews, sector reports) and to arrive at precisely formulated priority risks that guide the response and advocacy.

2Protection monitoring

Protection monitoring is the systematic and regular collection, verification and analysis of information over an extended period, in order to identify violations and risks, track trends and guide the response. It combines several methods:

• Key informant interviews and focus group discussions separated by age, gender and diversity.
• Direct observation (checkpoints, sites, markets, services).
• Household surveys, at regular intervals and with a defined sample.
• Incident monitoring, reserved for trained teams and backed by a referral pathway.

A good monitoring system starts from decision questions: what do we need to know in order to act? It collects the minimum necessary, publishes regular analyses (often monthly) and translates into action: referrals, interventions, advocacy. Monitoring that accumulates data without producing a response puts the people interviewed at risk with no benefit to them.

3Sensitive data and the do no harm principle

Protection information can expose people to reprisals. The basic rules, drawn from the protection information management (PIM) principles and the ICRC Professional Standards:

• Defined purpose and collection limited to what is necessary.
• Informed consent: the person knows why they are being interviewed, what will happen to the information and that they can refuse without losing assistance.
• Confidentiality and security: no names in reports, encrypted storage, restricted access, data sharing agreements.
• No investigation of GBV incidents by non-specialised teams: refer to services, do not document the incident.

Beware of re-identification: in a small village, "a 30-year-old woman with a disability arrested at the northern checkpoint" is enough to recognise the person. Aggregated data on very small numbers must be grouped or suppressed.

4Internal displacement and the Guiding Principles

According to the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement (1998, 30 principles), internally displaced persons (IDPs) are those who have been forced to flee their place of habitual residence, in particular as a result of conflict, violence, human rights violations or disasters, without crossing an internationally recognised State border. They remain citizens who enjoy all the rights of their country. More than 80 million people were living in internal displacement at the end of 2024 according to IDMC.

The Principles cover protection from arbitrary displacement, protection during displacement (life, freedom of movement, documents, family unity, property) and durable solutions. The IASC Framework on Durable Solutions (2010) sets out three options, return, local integration and settlement elsewhere in the country, and eight criteria, including safety and security, an adequate standard of living, access to livelihoods, restoration of housing, land and property and access to documentation. A return is only durable if it is voluntary, safe and dignified, and based on reliable information.