Budget monitoring, burn rate and reallocation

Time elapsed: 7/12 = 58.3%.

Observed rate: 438,300 / 7 = USD 62,614 per month. Remaining to be spent: 409,700, i.e. USD 81,940 per month over 5 months (+31%). Indirect costs: budget 59,360, spent 30,681.

The linear projection makes no sense for one-off purchases or phased activities: line 5 (kits almost all purchased, final cost 60,000), line 4 (boreholes), lines 3 and 6 (late start, pace expected to accelerate) and line 9 (final evaluation concentrated in December). It is relevant for lines 2, 7 and 8 (regular expenditure). Lines to watch: 4 and 7 (overspend), 3 and 6 (underspend linked to delays).

Latrines: 12% achieved for 20% spent. 352 remain; at 16 per month only 80 more would be built (total 128); 70.4 per month would be needed, which is unrealistic with the rainy season. Target not achievable without change (second contractor, extension or revision of the target).

Shelter transfers: 20% achieved and spent. 1,200 households remaining at 400 per month: 3 months, so achievable by the end of October if the provider maintains its capacity.

Boreholes: 90% achieved for 85% spent, but the 10th borehole causes an overspend. Kits: 95% and 95%, 200 kits remaining for USD 3,000, consistent.

Needs: line 4, 145,000 − 120,000 = 25,000; line 7, 60,000 − 48,000 = 12,000. Total 37,000.

Certain savings: line 1, 12,000; line 8, 4,000. Total 16,000. Line 9: none (evaluation maintained). Line 5: none.

Ceilings without approval: line 4, 15% of 120,000 = 18,000; line 7, 15% of 48,000 = 7,200.

Immediately: transfer the 16,000 of savings to line 4 (below the 18,000 ceiling), or 7,200 to line 7 and 8,800 to line 4, depending on urgency. With donor approval: the rest of line 4 (beyond 18,000) and line 7 beyond 7,200. 21,000 is missing: the only realistic source is line 3 if the latrine target is reduced by 60 units (140,000 / 400 = USD 350 per latrine; 60 × 350 = 21,000), which changes a result and must be negotiated; otherwise, reduce fuel consumption (vehicle pooling) or seek co-funding. Never take from line 6, which directly reaches households and is on track.

Deadline: 60 days before 31 December, i.e. 1 November 2026; it is preferable to flag it now.

Example: "Subject: Adré WASH and shelter project, request for budget revision. At 31 July, the project has spent 51.7% of its direct budget for 58% of the time elapsed. Shelter transfers and kits are on track. Two difficulties: the 10th borehole, deeper than planned, brings the cost of the boreholes line to USD 145,000 (+25,000), and the fuel price increase creates a need of USD 12,000. We are covering USD 16,000 through savings on staff and office costs. We request your approval for the transfers exceeding 15% and for the funding of the USD 21,000 balance. In addition, latrine construction started late and the rainy season is slowing the works: by 15 August we will propose either a two-month no-cost extension or a revision of the target. We remain available for a call."