Preparedness, prepositioning and last-mile distributions

1Logistics preparedness

Preparedness means doing, before the crisis, everything that would slow down the response afterwards:

• Framework agreements signed with suppliers, transporters, freight forwarders, warehouses.
• Country logistics assessment: ports, airports, roads, storage capacity, suppliers, customs (the Logistics Cluster publishes Logistics Capacity Assessments by country).
• Contingency stocks for the first days.
• Emergency procedures approved in advance (raised thresholds, temporary delegations).
• Rosters of trained staff who can be mobilised.
• Regular simulation exercises.

Several studies on prepositioning and preparedness have shown that investing before a crisis saves days and reduces response costs, in particular by avoiding air freight. The argument must nevertheless be quantified for each context.

2Sizing a contingency stock

A contingency stock is sized on the basis of a planning scenario: number of people affected, share the organisation will cover, items and the period to be covered before normal supplies arrive.

Example. Scenario: a flood affecting 30,000 households; the organisation commits to covering 20% for the first 4 weeks, until regional purchases arrive. Kits per household: 1 hygiene kit, 1 kitchen kit, 2 tarpaulins, 2 mosquito nets. Households covered: 6,000. Stock: 6,000 hygiene kits, 6,000 kitchen kits, 12,000 tarpaulins, 12,000 mosquito nets.

Cost of the stock. Value: 6,000 × (18 + 25) + 12,000 × (12 + 4) = 258,000 + 192,000 = 450,000 USD. Annual holding cost (storage, insurance, rotation, losses, capital) often estimated at 15 to 25% of the value: at 20%, 90,000 USD per year. This cost is justified if the stock makes it possible to avoid air freight or to gain the critical days.

Items with a limited shelf life (food, medicines, chlorine) must be rotated: integrated into regular programmes before they expire, and replaced.

3Where to preposition?

Three levels of stock are combined:

• Global or regional: humanitarian response depots (for example the UNHRD network), regional warehouses of the major organisations. Economies of scale, but lead time and cost of transport to the country.
• National: a warehouse in the capital or near the port. A good compromise.
• Local: small stocks in at-risk areas. Very fast, but costly, exposed to looting and humidity.

Trade-off example. Option A: regional stock, emergency air transport (5 days, 2.80 USD/kg). Option B: national stock, road transport (3 days, 0.25 USD/kg), additional holding cost of 30,000 USD per year. For a 200 t response: A costs 200,000 × 2.80 = 560,000 USD in freight; B costs 200,000 × 0.25 = 50,000 USD. If such a response occurs at least once every 10 years, B is already more economical (510,000 USD saved versus 300,000 in holding costs over 10 years), and faster.

4Organising an in-kind distribution

A successful distribution is prepared with the programme team and the community:

• A verified beneficiary list, distribution cards or tokens, without duplicates.
• Calculation of quantities per site, with a small margin (for example 2 to 3%) for errors and vulnerable cases identified on the day.
• Choice of site: accessible, safe, shade and water, separate queues, access for older people and people with disabilities, reasonable distance from home.
• Organisation: waiting, verification, handover and exit areas; female and male staff; display of entitlements (what each person should receive).
• Accountability: complaints committee, telephone line, explicit prohibition on demanding anything in exchange (sexual exploitation and abuse).
• Documentation: distribution list signed or thumb-printed, reconciliation of quantities issued, distributed and returned.

Site throughput. One handover point serves about 1 household per minute. 2,400 households in a 6-hour day require 2,400 / 360 ≈ 7 handover points. It is better to spread over two days or two sites than to make people wait for long hours in the sun.

5Reconciling and monitoring after the distribution

After each distribution, logistics and programme reconcile: quantities issued from the warehouse = quantities distributed + quantities returned + justified losses.

Example. Issued: 2,500 kits. Signed list: 2,410 households. Returned to the warehouse: 70 kits. Discrepancy: 2,500 − 2,410 − 70 = 20 kits unaccounted for (0.8%). Above a low tolerance, investigation: counting error, kits handed over without a signature, diversion.

Post-distribution monitoring (PDM) checks with a sample of households: did they receive the right quantity? are the items suitable? did they sell them (a sign of a poorly identified need)? were they subjected to pressure? Its results improve subsequent distributions.

A distribution without reconciliation or monitoring does not prove that the aid arrived; it only proves that it left the warehouse.

6In kind, vouchers or cash transfers?

The choice of modality changes the whole supply chain:

Logistics remains essential in cash transfers: market supply chain analysis (can traders restock?), contracts with payment providers, and sometimes support to traders. The cost-transfer ratio (delivery costs / amount transferred) of a cash programme is often well below that of in-kind assistance, but the comparison must include all costs and the effect on markets.